The debate about the severity and cause of global warming, and whether or not it is a “settled science”, has taken a beating with the release of the names of 31,072 American scientists who reject the assertion that global warming has reached a crisis stage and is caused by human activity.
Al Gore, a leading proponent of this global warming hoax, is a key beneficiary of the global warming calamity as a result of his strategic investment positioning with former CEO of Goldman Sach’s, David Blood. Generation Investment Management is a London-headquartered investment manager that was co-founded in 2004 by former U.S. Vice-President Al Gore and his partner, David Blood. Mr. Gore currently serves as it’s head.
IN THE PAST few years, there has been increasing concern from the media, politicians, and the public about global climate change. It has been stimulated by the idea that human activities may adversely influence global climates, and therefore, corrective action is required by governments. Recent evidence suggests that this concern is inconclusive and unfounded. In fact, normal human activities do not influence the global climate in any significant way. Climate continues to change, as it always has, warming and cooling on different time scales and for different reasons, regardless of human activities. We could argue that, should modest global warming occur, it could be generally beneficial.
This is not to say that we don’t face a serious problem. But, the problem is political, not environmental. Because of the mistaken idea that governments can and must do something about climate, pressures are building that have the potential of distorting energy policies in a way that will severely damage national economies, decrease standards of living, and increase poverty. This misdirection of resources would adversely affect human health and welfare in industrialized nations, and even more in developing nations. Thus, it could well lead to increased social tensions and conflict within and between nations.
If not for this economic and political damage, one might consider the present concern about climate change nothing more than just another environmentalist fad, like the Alar apple scare or the global cooling fears of the 1970s. Given that so much is at stake, however, it is essential that people better understand the issue.
Man-Made Warming?
The most fundamental question to be addressed is scientific in nature: “Is the observed warming of the past 30 years due to natural causes, or are human activities a main, or even a contributing, factor?”
At first glance, it is quite plausible that humans could be responsible for warming the climate. After all, the burning of fossil fuels to generate energy releases large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The CO2 level has been increasing steadily since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is now 35 percent higher than it was 200 years ago. Also, we know from direct measurements that CO2 is a “greenhouse gas” which strongly absorbs infrared (heat) radiation. So, the idea that burning fossil fuels causes an enhanced “greenhouse effect” merits diligent investigation.
But in seeking to understand recent warming, we also have to consider the natural factors that have regularly warmed the climate prior to the industrial revolution and, indeed, prior to any human presence on the earth. After all, the geological record shows a persistent 1,500-year cycle of warming and cooling extending back at least one million years.
To implement the burning of fossil fuels as the chief cause of warming today, many politicians and environmental activists simply appeal to a so-called “scientific consensus.” There are two things wrong with this. First, there is no such consensus. An increasing number of climate scientists are raising serious questions about the political rush to judgment on this issue. For example, the widely touted “consensus” of 2,500 scientists on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an illusion. Most of the panelists have no scientific qualifications, and many of the others object to some part of the IPCC’s report. The Associated Press reported recently that only 52 climate scientists contributed to the report’s “Summary for Policymakers.”
Likewise, only about a dozen members of the governing board voted on the “consensus statement” regarding climate change submitted by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Rank and file AMS scientists were never consulted, which is why so many of them are now openly rebelling. Estimates of skepticism within the AMS regarding man-made global warming is well over 50 percent.
The second reason not to rely on a “scientific consensus” in these matters is that this is not how science works. After all, scientific advances customarily come from a minority of scientists who challenge the majority view, sometimes by just a single person (think of Galileo or Einstein). Science proceeds by the scientific method and draws conclusions based on observation, evidence, and reason, not on a show of hands.
But, aren’t glaciers melting? Isn’t sea ice shrinking? Yes, but that’s not proof for human-caused warming. Any kind of warming, whether natural or human-caused, will melt ice. To assert that evidence of melting glaciers proves human causation is just bad logic and completely irresponsible and deceptive.
What about the fact that carbon dioxide levels are increasing at the same time temperatures are rising? That’s an interesting correlation, but as every scientist knows, correlation is not causation. For example, one might notice that when the wind blows, tree branches tend to move about. Does this imply that the trees, by flailing their branches, are creating the wind? We know, this is not the case. But, to the remote and untrained observer, a false conclusion could be established that trees cause the wind to blow. During much of the last century, the climate was cooling while CO2 levels were rising. And we should note that the climate has not warmed in the past eight years, even though greenhouse gas levels have increased rapidly.
What about the fact—cited by, among others, those who produced the IPCC report—that every major greenhouse computer model (there are two dozen or so) shows a large temperature increase due to human burning of fossil fuels? Fortunately, there is a scientific way of testing these models to see whether current warming is due to a man-made greenhouse effect. It involves comparing the actual or observed pattern of warming with the warming pattern predicted by or calculated from the models. Essentially, we try to see if the “finger-prints” match, “fingerprints” meaning the rates of warming at different latitudes and altitudes.
For instance, theoretical greenhouse warming in the tropics should register at increasingly high rates as one moves from the surface of the earth up into the atmosphere, peaking at about six miles above the earth’s surface. At that point, the level should be greater than at the surface by about a factor of three and quite pronounced, according to all the computer models. In reality, however, there is no increase at all. In fact, the data from balloon-borne radiosondes show the very opposite to be true, that a slight decrease in warming has occurred over the equator.
The fact that the observed and predicted patterns of warming don’t match give indication that, either the man-made greenhouse contribution to current temperature change is insignificant, or the models are unreliable. These data and graphs were presented in the Climate Change Science Program Report 1.1, published by the federal government in April 2006 (see www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm). It is remarkable and puzzling that few have noticed this disparity between observed and predicted patterns of warming and drawn the obvious and correct scientific conclusion.
What explains why greenhouse computer models predict temperature trends that are so much larger than those observed? The answer lies in the proper evaluation of feedback within the models. Remember that in addition to carbon dioxide, the real atmosphere contains water vapor, which is the most powerful greenhouse gas. Every one of the climate models calculates a significant positive feedback from water vapor, that is, feedback that amplifies the warming effect of the CO2 increase by an average factor of two or three. But, it is quite possible that the water vapor feedback is negative rather than positive, thereby reducing the effect of increased CO2.
There are several ways this might occur. For example, when increased CO2 produces a warming of the ocean, a higher rate of evaporation might lead to more humidity and cloudiness (provided the atmosphere contains a sufficient number of cloud condensation nuclei). These low clouds reflect incoming solar radiation back into space and, thereby, cool the earth. Climate researchers have discovered other possible feedback and are busy evaluating which ones enhance or diminish the effect of CO2 increases.
Natural Causes of Warming
A quite different question, but scientifically interesting, has to do with the natural factors influencing climate. This is a big topic about which much has been written. Natural factors include continental drift and mountain-building, changes in the Earth’s orbit, volcanic eruptions, and solar variability. Different factors operate on different time scales. But on a time scale important for human experience—a scale of decades, let’s say—solar variability may be the most influential.
Solar influence can manifest itself in different ways, such as fluctuations of solar radiance (total energy), which has been measured by satellites and related to the sunspot cycle. Variability of the ultraviolet portion of the solar spectrum, which in turn affects the amount of ozone in the stratosphere, is also a solar influence. And. Variations in the solar wind can modulate the intensity of cosmic rays which, upon impact into the earth’s atmosphere, produces cloud condensation nuclei that affect cloudiness and, thus, our climates.
Scientists have been able to trace the influence of the sun on past climate changes using proxy data (since thermometers are relatively modern). A conventional proxy for temperature is the ratio of the heavy isotope of oxygen, specifically Oxygen-18, to the most common form, Oxygen-16.
A paper published in Nature Magazine in 2001 addresses Oxygen-18 data (reflecting temperature) recovered from a stalagmite in a cave in Oman, providing date covering a period of over 3,000 years. It also shows corresponding Carbon-14 data, which are directly related to the intensity of cosmic rays striking the earth’s atmosphere. One can see there is a remarkably detailed correlation, almost on a year-by-year basis. While such research cannot establish the detailed mechanism of climate change, the causal connection is quite clear. Since the stalagmite temperature cannot affect the sun, it is the sun that affects climate.
Policy Consequences
If this line of reasoning is correct, which we believe it is, then human-caused increases in the CO2 level are quite insignificant to climate change. Natural causes of climate change, for their part, cannot be controlled by man. They are unstoppable. Several policy consequences would follow from this simple fact:
- Regulation of CO2 emissions is pointless and even counterproductive, because no matter what kind of mitigation scheme is used, such regulation would be useless and hugely expensive.
- The development of non-fossil fuel energy sources, like ethanol and hydrogen, might be counterproductive, given that they have to be manufactured, often with the investment of great amounts of energy from other sources. Nor do they offer much reduction in oil imports.
- Wind power and solar power become less attractive, being uneconomic and requiring huge subsidies.
- Substituting natural gas for coal in electricity generation makes less sense for the same reasons.
None of this is intended to argue against energy conservation or the continuing investigation into new energy technologies. On the contrary, conserving energy reduces waste, saves money, and lowers energy prices, irrespective of what one may believe about global warming. And, as new technologies emerge, viable solutions will most likely be developed to meet our energy needs, more effectively and efficiently.
Science vs. Hysteria
This has been a rational discussion based on reason. We asked the important question of whether there is significant man-made warming, today. We presented arguments that indicate there is not, thereby suggesting that attempts by governments to control green-house-gas emissions are pointless and unwise. Nevertheless, we have state governors calling for CO2 emissions limits on cars; we have city mayors calling for mandatory CO2 controls; we have the Supreme Court declaring CO2 a pollutant that may have to be regulated; we have every industrialized nation (with the exception of the U.S. and Australia) signed on to the Kyoto Protocol; and we have ongoing international demands for even more stringent controls when Kyoto expires in 2012. What’s going on, here? If scientific conclusions and deductive reasoning based on credible investigation fail to support the necessity to take action against global warming, then there must be other forces driving such actions.
Maybe some of the advocates of these anti-warming policies are not so serious about them, as seen in a feature of the Kyoto Protocol called the Clean Development Mechanism, which allows a CO2 emitter—an energy user—to support a fanciful CO2 reduction scheme in developing nations in exchange for the right to keep on emitting CO2 unabated. “Emission trading” among those countries that have ratified Kyoto allows for the sale of certificates of unused emission quotas. In many cases, the initial quota was simply given away by governments to power companies and other entities, which in turn collect a windfall fee from consumers. All of this has become a huge financial racket that could someday make the UN’s “Oil for Food” scandal in Iraq seem minor, by comparison. To add even more fraud to this scandalous behavior, these schemes do not reduce total CO2 emissions, not even in theory, which is supposed to be its fundamental purpose, right!
One should note that tens of thousands of interested persons benefit directly from the global warming scare, at the expense of the ordinary consumer. Environmental organizations globally, such as Greenpeace, the Sierra Club, and the Environmental Defense Fund, have raked in billions of dollars. Multi-billion-dollar government subsidies for useless mitigation schemes are large and growing. Emission trading programs will soon reach the $100 billion a year level, with large fees paid to brokers and those who operate the scams. In other words, many people have discovered they can benefit from climate scares and have formed an entrenched interest. Of course, there are also many sincere believers in an impending global warming catastrophe, spurred by their fears from the growing number of books, movies, and media coverage that project a one-sided, doom-and-gloom, biased and false story.
The irony is that a slightly warmer climate with more carbon dioxide is, in many ways, beneficial rather than damaging. Economic studies have demonstrated that modest warming and higher CO2 levels will increase GNP and raise standards of living, primarily by improving agriculture and forestry. It’s a well-known fact that CO2 is plant food and essential to the growth of crops and trees. And ultimately, this adds to the well-being of animals and humans.
You wouldn’t know it from Al Gore’s documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, but there are many upsides to global warming. Northern homes could save on heating fuel. Canadian farmers could harvest bumper crops. Greenland may become awash in cod and oil riches. Shippers could count on an Arctic shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific. Forests may expand. Mongolia could become an economic superpower. This is all speculative, even a little facetious. But still, might there be a silver lining for the frigid regions of Canada and Russia? “It’s not that there won’t be bad things happening in those countries,” economics professor Robert O. Mendelsohn of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies says. “But the idea is that they will get such large gains, especially in agriculture, that they will be bigger than the losses.” Mendelsohn has looked at how gross domestic product around the world would be affected under different warming scenarios through 2100. Canada and Russia tend to come out as clear gainers, as does much of northern Europe and Mongolia, largely because of projected increases in agricultural production.
To repeat a point made at the beginning of this topic, climates have been changing cyclically for at least a million years and have shown huge variations over geological time. Human beings have adapted well, and will continue to do so.
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The nations of the world face many difficult problems. Many have societal problems like poverty, disease, lack of sanitation, and shortage of clean water. There are grave security problems arising from global terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Any of these problems are vastly more important than the imaginary problem of man-made global warming. It is a great shame that so many of our resources are being diverted from real problems to this non-problem. Perhaps in ten or 20 years this will become apparent to everyone, particularly if the climate should stop warming (as it has for eight years now) or even begin to cool.
We can only trust that reason will prevail in the face of an onslaught of propaganda like Al Gore’s movie and despite the incessant misinformation generated by the media. Today, the imposed costs are still modest, and mostly hidden in taxes and in charges for electricity and motor fuels. If the scaremongers have their way, these costs will become enormous. But I believe that sound science and good sense will prevail in the face of irrational and scientifically baseless climate fears.
As we move ahead, the people must insist on protection from such abuses by invoking the powers of their state governments. Local state governments are armed with the power and authority of the people to challenge, annul, and reverse national policy that proves to be abusive to the people or unfounded. We, the people of the states, must learn how to harness and control the power of our state governments to protect our Rights and Liberties from undue encroachment and to secure our future happiness and prosperity under just laws and sound governmental action.
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